Season 2: #11 A New Commonwealth

The western alliance is in ashes. The United States cannot be trusted. To survive, Canada must work with allies, especially Europe, and fan the embers of a New Commonwealth of democracies.  Democracy can be re-invented. World Federalism must be the ultimate goal.

Transcript

10       A New Commonwealth

Sir Winston Churchill once said: “I do not admit that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America … or the blacks of Australia… by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, or, at any rate, a more worldly-wise race…has come in and taken their place.”

This was from the man who rallied the democratic Western allies to defeat the totalitarian Nazis. He believed in democracy, for all its flaws. He described democracy as the worst form of government except for all the others. His words, however, mirrored the pride and prejudice that was a hallmark of the old British Empire, and indeed of all empires. 

This pride and prejudice is now reappearing in autocratic empires around the world. Russia and China are both examples. Similar qualities of self-righteous pride and hostility to others is found in many religions: Sunni, Shiite, Christian, Zionism, Hindu and Buddhist. All appear to be on a collision course with each other, and with the climate crisis.

Sadly, experience suggests it is better to assume there are no good guys, and occasionally we get a pleasant surprize. That may be too cynical a view. The leadership and courage of Ukraine was a very pleasant surprize. But no good deed goes unpunished. Suddenly it is the United States that is betraying Ukraine, befriending dictators, abandoning allies, threatening sovereign nations like Canada. Trump plays golf as the planet burns.

This is moment of extreme danger. American democracy is failing. Dictators are on the rise. An over-crowded planet, armed to the teeth, faces a climate disaster. 

Are there any good guys to work with? America notwithstanding, democracies around the world have built a strong foundation of alliances and treaties in security, trade, and other areas. For all the bad guys out there, there are lots of good guys. If Canada can survive the Trumpian threats of occupation, those good guys are the hope for peace and prosperity. The crisis may force the change that has been so long in coming.

Canada has a lot to offer in a new alliance, which is unlikely to include Washington until a democratic revolution can return the republic to the ballot box. Canada’s strength is in natural resources. With Indigenous self-government and a renovated Constitution, those riches can be unlocked. Canada could see a boom in mining, energy, transportation, and renewable resources. With wealth comes influence.

Strategically, Canada must of course engage China and other adversaries on climate change and other issues. Adversaries need not be enemies. The hope is that authoritarian governments will over time evolve towards democracy. Taiwan is an example of how that can happen. Democracy can take root, but is not a certainty. The reverse is more common. The recent decades of free trade were intended to bring adversaries closer, to establish a bond of trust. As Trump has demonstrated, iron clad agreements are an illusion.

To achieve a peaceful, sustainable planet a half century from now, Canada’s best hope lies in a strong and re-structured alliance of democracies. Call this alliance a “New Commonwealth”. 

Currently, democracies like Canada participate in a host of treaties and agreements. The European Union, NAFTA, NATO, the Indo-Pacific security alliance… there are many still in force. Some involve trade. Others security, the Law of the Sea, Telecommunications, Space… It’s an endless list, a patchwork. Some work. Others don’t. None are flawless. 

In addition, experts have put many great ideas on the table to deal with  specific problems. We see efforts, now faltering, to create treaties to eliminate tax havens, or to set minimum taxes, or a set a fee on global financial transactions to fund international agencies. We see global standards emerging for corporate governance, social responsibility and carbon neutrality. We also see these being shredded. Lots of good work is underway. Lots of good work will die on the vine.

What can Canada do in this moment of transition and peril? The answer is to build new alliances, with economic self-sufficiency, military deterrence, and democracy. Now, that is not a new idea. This should be the basis of a New Commonwealth of Democracies. That is, a confederation based on shared values and common interests. There are huge efficiencies to be found in greater cooperation, both for security and economic sustainability.

Canada’s first goal should be to identify international agreements that can work as the building blocks of a new alliance. Think of it as a jig saw puzzle, the pieces still in the box. Put it together, and you can see if pieces are missing, and if there are pieces that belong in a different box entirely. 

The picture that emerges would become the New Commonwealth. 

The Commonwealth would lead on issues with global reach. The member countries would retain authority over national and local issues. But instead of a patchwork of agreements on trade, security or climate, the Commonwealth would have a single voice, a single law, a single set of regulations. All members would play by the same rules, and enjoy the same benefits. A universal code of rights and freedoms would be created, along with rule by law.  

Non-member countries would negotiate with the Commonwealth on issues like trade, rather than cut deals with a bunch of different countries. The Commonwealth would seek to grow and expand, and invite new members. The conditions to join would be clear. Countries not in the Commonwealth would be helped to meet those condition, when they see the benefits. 

The New Commonwealth might include much of the former British Commonwealth, the Francophonie, members of the European Union, Japan, Latin American countries, and others. Many of these countries will be feeling betrayed by the United States embrace of Russia, and will be exploring new options. The United States would not be included under the current circumstances. MAGA is not compatible with democratic alliances based on trust. 

This concept of a New Commonwealth is different from the World Economic Forum proposal which was labeled a "Great Re-set". That proposal, like the techno-authoritarian approach now taking shape, would allow a coalition of multinational corporations, governments and civil society organizations to manage the capitalist economies. The techno-authoritarian approach is one in which control over all systems of communication can impose a new globalism, where the billionaire elites can manage the world with the assistance of artificial intelligence and quantum computing. That is the brave new world to be avoided.

A New Commonwealth would be based on real democracy to be credible. That’s a huge challenge in an age of disinformation. A New Commonwealth legislature would be required. It would require agreement on how much representation each country would have. A New Commonwealth constitution would be crafted. These are tricky issues. The European Union has much to teach us, and in fact could be the bedrock of a new Commonwealth. It includes the pitfalls that should be avoided. 

Canada also has experience in this type of debate. The alliance would have to agree on which issues are to be addressed by the New Commonwealth, and which are retained by national governments. This would all be incredibly difficult, and time is precious. 

Negotiations for a New Commonwealth treaty would be slow, painful, and nit-picky. The bureaucracy that would emerge would inevitably be huge, rule-bound, and often very annoying. The wheels of bureaucracy grind slow, but they grind exceedingly fine. Like taxes, bureaucratic process is part of the price for living in a civilized democracy. 

Imagine, however, that 50 years from now a New Commonwealth had been created. Non-members had made changes to their political systems so they can join. Trade, aid, communications, humanitarian assistance, peace-keeping and other tools would go to assist these developing countries. 

Always, democracies would collaborate with adversaries on shared problems like climate change, plastic pollution, and debris in space. They would engage in sport and cultural diplomacy. The door to diplomacy must always be ajar. 

One area where Canada could take a lead is by acting as a broker in international negotiations to end the arms race.  The arms race, nuclear and conventional, is driven by fear. No country on earth can afford to spend endlessly on weapons when the needs of people on the planet are so much greater. An honest broker is needed in these negotiations. Why not Canada? 

A key challenge to the New Commonwealth would be to prove that nations, tribes, cultures, can have peace, and still retain their identities, their national pride and their cultures. 

The New Commonwealth would move past the stale concept of the nation-state. The concept of fixed borders only started in the 1700’s. Clearly, in an age of easy travel, terrorism, masses of refugees, and other concerns, border security is essential. It is evident from the experience of Europe, or of the Americans with their southern border, that it is very hard to totally control a flood of desperate refugees in a humane manner. Elimination of borders within a New Commonwealth might a key to success, with shared responsibility for perimeter border control. The European Union has the most experience on this issue.  International assistance to help developing nations grow and become democratic is a way to reduce the border pressures.

This approach to the elimination of borders within the New Commonwealth will do little for nations without a state. Thirty million Kurds are split between Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria. Millions of Palestinians are refugees, and in the process of being expelled from their traditional land. In North America, nations like the Sioux and the Haudenosaunee were denied sovereignty, with the tribes split by a border they never accepted. In Rwanda, for generations the minority Tutsi governed the Hutu. That ended in genocide. In Myanmar, a half a million Rohingyas were driven from their homes.  Even in Canada, one of the finest examples of democracy in the world, we see Indigenous nations and Quebec struggle to preserve their identity in a multi-cultural society. 

Worldwide there are hundreds of tribes, nations, entire cultures that live without a democratic homeland. Too often they exist under a government that has pride and prejudice akin to that of Winston Churchill. A New Commonwealth must offer a different path. It must find a way to build wealth, ensure security, welcome diversity, and address climate change. All this, while providing the space for Commonwealth members to focus on their equivalent of peace, order, good government, and a sustainable planet. 

To achieve this, what a New Commonwealth must invent is a new concept of democratic government that befits the 21stcentury. That is, a form of government that accepts diversity, tolerates differences, and is capable of efficient and effective government. It is likely that a key to success will be to use technology to build bridges. Democracy enabled by technology, including artificial intelligence, will almost certainly prove essential.

In an ideal world, the United Nations would solve global problems such as these. In the real world, the UN is ineffective. In an ideal world, the World Trade Organization and the World Bank would lead. In the real world, they fall short. These 20th century structures are outdated and ineffective.

The current crisis is happening because of Donald Trump who is burning down the American government, and setting fire to the Pax Americana that was crafted over the past seventy-five years. When the fire subsides, new structures must rise from the ashes. New international organizations and alliances will have to be created. 

This crisis is also an opportunity. UN reform is long overdue. The Security Council is obsolete and impotent. The next several years will almost certainly find the UN and other global institutions in trouble, broke and irrelevant. In a multi-polar world, a number of expansive countries will jostle for power and influence: China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and others. Trade wars, climate catastrophes, and ethnic conflicts are to be expected.  

The United States will take decades to heal itself, to re-build institutions that are competent and trusted. Thomas Jefferson wrote that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” That time is upon them, and the outcome isuncertain.

From this chaos, a New Commonwealth could emerge as the de facto leader of the free world.  It could lead in the reform of global institutions, seeking ways to make them work in the interest of all. Even dictators need a forum through which to engage. On issues such as trade, finance, climate, or the de-escalation of conflict, global agreements and assemblies are useful for all. It is time for a renewal of the international institutions that have run their course, and a New Commonwealth could lead the way. 

Ideally, the New Commonwealth itself will be a model for a transition to World Federalism. The crisis ahead is certain to be so dire that many nations will see the advantage of the new forms of democracy that may emerge. If the global public can see beyond self-interested populism, their governments will follow.  

World Federalism is the concept of a democratic world government, based on human rights and rule by law. A World Federation would lead on issues of global reach. All members of the federation would still have responsibility for local and national issues. In short, World Federalism is similar to the New Commonwealth, but global. 

For a global treaty, all countries would have to feel secure. China, Iran, and every other nuclear powers would have to agree to arms reduction, and to the ultimate elimination of the weapons industries. It would be the age of disarmament.

The concept of World Federalism has been around since the end of World War II, but has lost steam. As a concept it’s supported by members of all Canada’s political parties. As a first step in making all this happen, Canada could adopt legislation declaring World Federalism as a formal goal, making it a diplomatic priority. 

All this, of course, is futurism, an exercise in imagination. There are a million reasons it will fail. 

So let me finish with one big obstacle. Let me touch on the most heated and treacherous dispute of all: Israel and Palestine. 

Both sides in the conflict have suffered terribly forever.  The Middle East is a true crossroad of the world. The history of the region is one of war and turmoil, compounded by religion. 

A Jewish perspective might start with a belief that the land was given to them by God. There is no rebuttal to this origin story, though other people also lived there from before the time of Moses. 

The Romans eventually conquered the land. Two thousand years ago, frustrated by unending uprisings, Rome dispersed most Jews in a diaspora. For centuries, the Jewish people held onto their culture, their religion, and their belief that Israelites were the chosen people. Through pogroms and inquisitions, they dreamed of the day they would return to Jerusalem. 

Then came the unimaginable.  Jewish people bore the brunt of a terrible evil: the Nazi holocaust. Survivors of the horror made their way to the land of dreams, and built a new Israel. Never again, they said, would they be the victims.  

 During those two millennia of the diaspora, the land was always occupied.  The people living there were Palestinians. To them, the creation of Israel shortly after the Second World War was their diaspora, known as the Nakba. Terrified by the massacre of entire Palestinian villages, they had fled their homes, always dreaming that they would return. For decades, they have been stuck in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon, Gaza and elsewhere. Those who fought back filled Israeli jails, or dusty graveyards.

There were no good guys. At least, not among the leaders, and not in the Middle East. Especially not when the region is caught up in the struggle between the great powers, and major religions. All sides fervently believe that God is on their side. None seem to accept that two wrongs do not make a right, or that revenge and justice are not the same.

Thirty years ago, when reporting from the region, I produced a documentary entitled “The Cauldron Bubbles.” It seemed even then that there was no hope for peace. A two-state solution was a complete fantasy.

It took longer than I expected. On October 7th. 2023, Hamas attacked innocent civilians. They took hostages, and used their own people as shields.  Israel struck back with overwhelming force, seemingly unconcerned that women and children, journalists and doctors, teachers and aid workers were first in the line of fire. The rubble bounced, thanks to American bombs.

To Israeli war leaders, October 7th was an invitation. Instead of negotiating, they drove into Lebanon and Syria, and continued to cleanse the West Bank of the Palestinian population. It will prove to be a Pyrrhic victory. The seeds of hatred have been planted, and will bear fruit for seasons and seasons to come. It is beyond sad for the majority of civilians on both sides. 

It is especially sad for what has become of Israel. In the holocaust, Jews saw the face of evil. At the Nuremburg trials, they heard the earnest justification for war crimes, the banal explanations for the shattered bodies of children. This time, their leaders are making the banal statements, the earnest justifications. 

It is fair criticize the conduct of the Israeli government. It is immoral to ignore atrocities. Hamas and Hezbollah may also commit evil.  However, sadness for what Israel has become is necessary precisely because so much more is expected of the Jewish state. Jews have a history of genius, of music, science, humour, industry, and so much more. If the Jewish state celebrates the brutality of Gaza, there is little hope for the United States, or Europe, or Canada. 

What is missing for all, in the Middle East, and the United States, and Europe or China, is an “ultimate outcome” that makes sense. That is, a long-term outcome that works for everybody, that rejects the war cries of the bad guys, and has a chance of success. In the Middle East, we can see that all hope for a two-state solution has turned to dust. A new solution must be found.

This is where Canada comes in. No, no-one can solve the Middle East. Only the people of the region can move towards peace, and that’s not going well. But Canada can re-imagine democracy, renovate our own Constitution, and demonstrate new ways of governing with an eye to the future. Canada can lead by example, by showing how democracy can be re-invented. Canada can celebrate diversity and good government. Canada can fumble its way, through the messy, painful process of open-minded discussion, towards a New Commonwealth.

Over the intervening decades, Canada can help build a New Commonwealth, and push for World Federalism. We can fight climate change. We can promote democracy. If we succeed, it opens a door for hope in the Middle East. It offers a democratic ideal for Kurds, Rohingyas, Haudenosaunee, and other wonderfully diverse cultures and peoples of the planet. 

All destinations are possible, if you know where you intend to go. But as Yogi Berra warned: If you don't know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.

Canada’s Indigenous elders understood this. They tried to act in the interest of descendants seven generations into the future. We can Re-imagine Canada After Trump. We can re-imagine the world.